Manchin Decision Not To Run For Re-Election Elevates Risk For Democrats

Senator Joe Manchin's (D-WV) surprise, but not unexpected decision, not to seek re-election in 2024 all but hands the West Virginia Senate seat to Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) and further increases the chances of the GOP flipping control of the Senate in 2024.

• With the 2024 Senate map already overwhelmingly in favour of Republicans, Machin's decision makes tight races in Ohio and Montana critical for Democrats - two seats where Democrat incumbents are playing defence in states Biden lost in 2020.
• Montana Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) said, in a fundraising appeal yesterday: "You can bet that every dollar national Republicans would have spent in West Virginia is now coming to Montana."
• Beyond West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, Republicans also have pickup opportunities in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The GOP will likely have to flip just one or two of these seven seats to take control of the Senate, depending on White House control.
• Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are the only two Republican seats which offer a competitive race for Democrats.
• Democrats will also be concerned that Manchin may choose to run for president on a third-party ticket - a move he has been teasing for months - which Democrats fear could split the Democrat/Independent vote and strengthen Trump.
• Manchin said in a video statement yesterday: "What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together."