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Manufacturing Sales Lift Can’t Prevent Heavy Trend Decline

CANADA DATA
  • Manufacturing sales increased 1.2% M/M in November (advance 1.2, cons 1.0) after a heavy -2.9% M/M.
  • The story relatively healthier in volume terms but follows a similar pattern, rising 1.6% M/M after -2.4% M/M. Further, combined with prior monthly declines, it leave sales down a heavy -6.5% annualized on a 3M/3M basis.
  • Wholesale sales ex petroleum etc increased 0.9% M/M (advance 0.8, cons 0.8) after -0.3% M/M.
  • The picture is less flattering in volume terms, rising 0.6% M/M after -0.5% M/M but unlike manufacturing sales, ‘core’ wholesale sales have held onto positive growth at 1.5% annualized on the same 3M/3M basis.
  • Combined, they offer a subdued quarter for sales activity. Retail sales is due its final November print on Fri to cap off a heavy week of Canadian data, with nominal sales pencilled in as “relatively unchanged” in the advance.

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