March 13 Erbil Attack In Response To Turkish Gas Plan

Reuters has reported that the March 13 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Erbil, Iraq was prompted by a plan for Iraqi Kurdistan to supply gas to Turkey and Europe.

• At the time the attack appeared unprovoked, the motive unknown, and came as optimism for a deal on the Iranian nuclear accords appeared close.
• Since the attack the deal to reinstate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has looked increasingly imperiled. The key point of contention is the US designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.
• The IRG claimed responsibility for the attack and the dispute over FTO designation has created a rift between the US and Middle Eastern partners.
• Reuters: 'Iraqi and Turkish officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity this week said they believe the attack was meant as a multi-pronged message to U.S. allies in the region - but that a key trigger was a plan to pump Kurdish gas into Turkey and Europe, with Israel's involvement.'
• The new intelligence provides more context to the attack and demonstrates the geopolitical complexity of alternatives to Russian oil and gas.