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Marginally Richer On Tuesday, Card Spending Due Tomorrow

BONDS

NZGBs sit 2-3bps richer across the major benchmarks, light bull steepening is apparent. Early gains marginally extended as Tsys ticked away from session lows however ranges remain narrow.

  • 10 Year NZ US Swaps remain stable and last print at +51bps.
  • RBNZ dated OIS currently price a terminal rate of ~5.50% in Feb 24 with ~15bps of cuts by Oct 24.
  • On the wires this morning October Food Prices fell 0.9% M/M, the prior read was -0.4% M/M. Goldman Sachs noted that they see a near-term upside side of higher inflation and rates but see the RBNZ on hold before gradual easing in Q4 2024 (BBG).
  • RBNZ Governor Silk also noted in a speech this morning that previous tightenings are showing an impact in terms of reducing demand and inflationary pressure. This suggests the better business activity outlook painted by the ANZ survey needs to show up in demand, inflation indicators, before shifting the RBNZ outlook.
  • Due early in tomorrow's session we have October Card Spending and Sep Net Migration.
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