Margins Hold Gains As IEA Show Lower EU and US Runs in Q3

US and European refining margins are holding onto gains from yesterday with support from US low inventory levels and potential for lower run rates. Throughput for oil refiners in Europe and the US will to be lower than previously expected in Q3 2023 after a drop in margins according to the IEA monthly oil report.

• The IEA Q3 OECD Americas forecast was revised down to 19mb/d from 19.4mb/d previously and OECD Europe revised to 11.5mb/d from 11.7mb/d previously.
• Global crude throughput was raised by 300kb/d for 2023 to 82.3mb/d compared to 80.5mb/d last year with growth led by China and India.
• Russian crude boosted record throughput in Asia in Q1 to increase product supplies and drive weaker margins. “New capacity and ample availability of discounted Russian crude in Asia skews activity away from the Atlantic Basin”
• IEA showed refinery runs in Russia were up 400kb/d from last month at 5.5mb/d signalling maintenance may have been deferred.
• EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell has said that the EU should crack down on India selling Russian oil as refined fuels into Europe.

• US 321 crack down -0.2$/bbl at 31.09$/bbl
• US gasoline crack down -0.4$/bbl at 32.22$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 28.82$/bbl
• EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.4$/bbl at 17.2$/bbl
• EU Gasoil-Brent unchanged at 16.33$/bbl