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Markdown for Inflation Forecast Could Weigh on Peak Rate Expectations

SNB

The SNB raises rates by 50bps to 1.00%, alongside expectations.

Policy Statement here: https://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20221215/s...

Highlights:

  • FX language unchanged: "also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary."
  • Near-term inflation forecasts revised lower to accommodate softer oil price: lower by 0.4 ppts into H2'23
  • From mid-2023 onwards, the new forecast is higher and stands at 2.1% at the end of the forecast horizon.

A broadly as-expected decision from the SNB, but the 0.4ppts mark lower for near-term inflation forecasts could put downward pressure on peak rate expectations - currently at 1.25% - 2.00% to be reached in H1 next year.

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