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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen a marked increase today, with relatively few new drivers considering Kashkari’s (’23 voter) comments were mostly a repeat of yesterday and if anything he noted a potential for the Fed to need to do less tightening if a shutdown slows the economy.
- A beat for durable goods orders was partly offset by a downward revision and indeed there was little reaction at the time, before implied rates started to grind higher in tandem with a surge in crude oil futures with WTI currently just shy of $94 (+3.9%).
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +6bp Nov (+1.5bp on the day), +12bp Dec (+2bp) and +13.5bp Jan (+2bp) for a terminal 5.46%.
- Cuts from terminal: 19bp to Jun’24 (from 22.5bp yesterday) and 72bp to Dec’24 (from 78bp). The first cut from current levels tilts back to September having almost fully priced July at the start of the session.
- It comes ahead of an important session tomorrow. Chair Powell speaks late on at 1600ET with additional commentary through the day from Goolsbee (’23), Cook (voter) and Barkin (’24 voter), along with finalized GDP and national account benchmark revisions plus weekly jobless claims.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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