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MARKET ANALYSIS: Not Enough Focus on...>

STIR FUTURES
STIR FUTURES: MARKET ANALYSIS: Not Enough Focus on European Growth Relative to
US Risks
Over the past week, we have seen both Euribor and Eurodollar futures curves move
higher, with the Eurodollar curve in particular moving higher on the back of Fed
Chair Powell's speech yesterday. These comments were in line with the MNI
Exclusive: Fed Could Pause Rate Hikes as Early as Spring (see mainwire Nov 21 at
11:22GMT).
- With data deteriorating in the Eurozone too, our policy team cited sources
last week that the ECB's "broadly balanced" risk assessment could be under
pressure at the December meeting (see MNI SOURCES: Pressure On "Balanced Risks"
As Data Weighs On ECB, mainwire Nov 23, 13:14GMT).
- We don't think that the Euribor curve is reflecting this enough at present.
- We think the H9-H0 spread between Eurodollar and Euribor will widen.
For full analysis see: https://tinyurl.com/MNI-EDER-Nov29
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