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Market Roundup: Rebound After Post-Data Sell-Off

US TSYS

Tsy 30Y futures bouncing again after extending session lows (149-18) after Feb PCE prices come out in-line with expectations (+0.6%; +6.4% Y/Y), weekly claims slightly higher than expected at 202k vs. 196k. Futures back near overnight highs while yield curves have scaled back earlier steepening, trading mixed: 2s10s -1.07 at +2.577, 5s10s +1.073 at -8.207.

  • Markets appear inured to latest round of geopol headlines re: Russia war in Ukraine, troop deployments and expanding sanctions.
  • Whippy trade ahead Fri's March jobs data (+490k est vs. +678k prior) and drop in crude w/ US Pres Biden expected to annc release of SPR today (1330ET presser).
  • Month end rebalancing also eyed, though Tsy extension modest around +.07.
  • Current cross asset: West Texas Crude (WTI): -$5.51 (5.65%) at $102.35; Gold near steady at $1932.75.
  • Technicals for TYM2: Despite carry-over bid, trend direction in Treasuries is bearish. Initial resistance is at 123-12, the Mar 23 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at 124-01+. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the recent low of 120-30+ where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and this would open the 120-00 handle.

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