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US TSYS: Markets Cling to Narrow Ranges Ahead Friday January Employment Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries hold to lower, narrow ranges late Thursday, scaling back some of the midweek rally that saw Mar'25 10Y futures climb to the highest level since prior to the December 18 FOMC announcement. Markets held ranges amid moderate two-way position squaring heading into Friday's headline employment data for January that is expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
  • Little react to BOE cutting rates by expected 25bp but raising forward inflation guidance sharply. Initial jobless claims were higher than expected at 219k (sa, cons 213k) in the week to Feb 1 after an upward revised 208k (initial 207k). Unit labor costs rose by less than had been expected in Q4 2024, with the 3.0% Q/Q SA annualized rise (3.4% survey).
  • After the bell, Mar'25 10Y futures trade -6 at 109-18 (109-14 low/109-25 high), well inside technicals: resistance above at 109-30 (61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg); support below at 108-20.5 (Low Feb 4). 10Y yld at 4.4382% +.0201.
  • The Greenback looks to finish near steady after climbing off yesterday's lows earlier, the BBG US$ index at 1297.58 at the bell vs. 1302.43 high. Post-BOE, the GBPUSD fell sharply back below the 1.24 handle.
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  • Treasuries hold to lower, narrow ranges late Thursday, scaling back some of the midweek rally that saw Mar'25 10Y futures climb to the highest level since prior to the December 18 FOMC announcement. Markets held ranges amid moderate two-way position squaring heading into Friday's headline employment data for January that is expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
  • Little react to BOE cutting rates by expected 25bp but raising forward inflation guidance sharply. Initial jobless claims were higher than expected at 219k (sa, cons 213k) in the week to Feb 1 after an upward revised 208k (initial 207k). Unit labor costs rose by less than had been expected in Q4 2024, with the 3.0% Q/Q SA annualized rise (3.4% survey).
  • After the bell, Mar'25 10Y futures trade -6 at 109-18 (109-14 low/109-25 high), well inside technicals: resistance above at 109-30 (61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg); support below at 108-20.5 (Low Feb 4). 10Y yld at 4.4382% +.0201.
  • The Greenback looks to finish near steady after climbing off yesterday's lows earlier, the BBG US$ index at 1297.58 at the bell vs. 1302.43 high. Post-BOE, the GBPUSD fell sharply back below the 1.24 handle.