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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have fallen in two steps over the FOMC decision and press conference.
- They first dropped on the 2024 dot still showing a median three cuts rather than anything more outrightly hawkish, before paring some of the move on the strong macro forecasts and the higher for longer theme of subsequent dots.
- A second shift lower was then supported by Chair Powell not categorically dismissing a potential cut in May or June (even if he didn’t sound too enthusiastic on the prospect), as he did with a March cut back in the January press conference.
- With the FOMC appearing close to announcing a reduction in the pace of QT (with seemingly a good chance of May), it further helps keep low odds of a May rate cut and instead sees that greater skew towards June.
- Cumulative cuts: 4bp May (3bp pre-FOMC), 20.5bp Jun (from 17.5bp), 32.5bp Jul (from 28bp) and 83bp Dec (from 75bp).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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