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Markets Reverse Course, But Price Action Looks Corrective in Nature

FOREX
  • Markets across equity, fixed income and foreign exchange markets bounced Friday, with sentiment underpinned well into the close and helping the likes of CAD, AUD, NOK and SEK make solid gains against the greenback. There was no prime news catalyst or headline to drive the reversal in fortunes, with short-covering and profit-taking the most likely culprit as the E-mini S&P ripped back above the 4,000 level.
  • Focus going forward turns to the longevity of the move, with traders watching for smoother sentiment in stock markets before the likes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD can discount further cycle lows going forward (both of which touched multi-year lows early Friday, before bouncing).
  • For the USD Index, the losses look fleeting, with the corrective pullback helping alleviate some of the technically overbought conditions evident on the longer-term chart. Fedspeak came and went, with Mester and Kashkari providing few new details and continuing to indicate another 50bps of tightening at the June FOMC meeting.
  • In the coming week, focus turns to Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, UK jobs & inflation numbers and appearances from BoE's Bailey, Fed's Powell and ECB's Lagarde.
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