MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Markets Roundup: Narrow Inside Range to Start New Week

US TSYS
  • Typical summer session, muted action after last last week's full docket of CPI, PPI and Retail Sales. Light volumes with Japan out for one day holiday, Treasury futures traded inside narrow session range, 5s-10s outperforming mildly lower intermediates by the close. Curves a touch flatter.
  • Limited reaction to small beat for July Empire Fed manufacturing index as it dipped to +1.1 (cons -3.5) after +6.6, close compared to some recent surprises.
  • Remember this is a particularly volatile measure, with a standard deviation for its monthly change since 2021 at a very wide 23pts (and 28pts since 2022), but two months at broadly similar levels has been unusual compared to its typical pattern of lurching lower again.
  • The Federal Reserve is in media blackout in regards to policy, through July 27, the day after the next FOMC.
  • Projected rate hike expectations holding steady: July 26 FOMC is 93.6% w/ implied rate of +23.4bp to 5.313%. September cumulative of +26.6bp at 5.345%, November cumulative of 32.1bp at 5.399%, and December cumulative of 25.8bp at 5.337%. Fed terminal holding at 5.40% in Nov'23.
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