MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 27 May, 2024

• The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Finland all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
• On the syndication side, we see Spain as the most likely candidate to hold a syndication in our view.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E37.8bln, up from E26.7bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E69.8bln: E36.3bln of a formerly 10-year OAT, E14.1bln of a BTP Short Term and E19.5bln of a Spanish formerly 3-year Bono.
• Coupon payments for the week are E13.8bln: E12.3bln French, E0.8bln Spanish and E0.5bln Italian.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E45.9bln, versus positive E23.0bln this week.

EZ240527a.pdf

Supply Next Week

• The EU will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday. On offer will be up to E2.5bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) which was launched last month via syndication alongside up to E2.5bln of the short 20-year 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DG1).
• Belgium will also look to hold a conventional auction on Monday with E2.0-2.5bln combined of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs on offer: the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694) and the 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700).
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the short 15-year 0% Jan-38 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000B11).
• Also on Tuesday, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E1.5-1.75bln of the 0% Dec-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005474330), E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
• Rounding off Tuesday’s issuance, Germany will look to hold a Green auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
• Italy will return to the market on Thursday with a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. We expect reopenings of the on-the-run 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856) but don’t have a strong conviction for the CCTeu. Details will be confirmed on Monday.
• Finland will conclude issuance for the month, also on Thursday, with up to E400mln available through its ORI Facility.
• Belgium opened its books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday 24 May. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year 3.20% Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year 2.80% Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276).