MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Aug 29

• The EU, Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E29.0bln, up from this week’s E17.0bln sold.
• The upcoming week will see redemptions from Italy and Malta totalling E20.3bln – E19.6bln of this will be from a formerly 10-year BTP. There will also be E7.8bln of Italian coupon payments due.
• With estimated gross issuance of E29.0bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of positive E1.0bln next week, down from this week’s positive E15.7bln.

Full document:

EZ220829.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• The EU will kick off issuance on Monday with up to E4bln of the 0.80% Jul-25 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3K4DJ5) on offer. This will be the first EU auction that has had an amount of greater than E2.5bln issued (although syndications of course have been much larger than the E4bln on offer at this auction).
• On Tuesday, Italy will conclude August’s issuance with up to E8.0bln on offer: E2.75-3.25bln of the on-the-run 5-year 2.65% Dec-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005500068), E0.75-1.25bln of the off-the-run 3.50% Mar-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005024234), E1.75-2.25bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and E0.75-1.25bln of on-the-run the 0.75% Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250)
• On Thursday, Spain will reopen the 0% May-25 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012K38), 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61), 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12) and the 1.90% Oct-52 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K46). Auction sizes will be announced on Monday.
• Also Thursday, France will look to sell E9-10bln of long-term OATs. On offer will be the 1.50% May-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0012993103), 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3) and the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62).
• Concluding Thursday’s issuance, Ireland will look to hold its only bond auction of the quarter. The details will be announced on Monday. MNI expects a E0.75-1.00bln auction size with the 0.35% Oct-32 IGB on offer, potentially alongside another bond.
• Belgium will conclude issuance for the week on Friday through its ORI facility. We expect 1-3 off-the-run OLOs to be on offer for a combined total of E500mln.