MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 12

• Italy, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the week ahead.
• We look for the syndications schedule to slow down somewhat, although we do see some risk that given the heavier redemptions and the still very strong demand, that there could be risks of other syndications being pulled forward. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E37.0bln, up a little from E34.0bln this week.
• The week ahead sees E42.3bln of redemptions: E22.5bln from a formerly 10-year Bund, E6.0bln from a formerly 10-year OT and E13.8bln from a formerly 7-year CCTeu.
• Coupons for the week sum to E3.7bln including E2.0bln German, E0.9bln Portuguese and E0.4bln Italian.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E9.0bln, compared to positive E33.6bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240212.pdf

Supply Next Week

• Italy will look to hold a 3/7/15-50-year BTP auction on Tuesday. On offer will be: E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 3-year 2.95% Feb-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580045), E1.25-1.5bln of the off-the-run 6-year 3.70% Jun-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005542797), E1.5-2.0bln of the off-the-run 7-year 4.00% Nov-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005561888) and E1.25-1.5bln of the on-the-run 20-year 4.45% Sep-43 BTP (ISIN: IT0005530032).
• Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026).
• Greece will look to hold a GGB auction on Wednesday with details to be confirmed the preceding day.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction. to hold a 30-year Bund auction. The 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004) that was launched via syndication on 30 January for E6ln (E5bln allotted) will be reopened for the first time for E1bln. Alongside this will be E1bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
• Portugal will also hold an OT auction on Wednesday, with a combined E1.50-1.75bln of OTs on offer: the 5-year 1.95% Jun-29 OT (ISIN: PTOTEXOE0024), the on-the-run 10-year 2.875% Oct-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTESOE0021) and the on-the-run 30-year 1.00% Apr-52 OT (ISIN: PTOTECOE0037).
• Spain will come to the market on Thursday to hold a Bono/Olbi auction with the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the on-the-run 5-year 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51) and the off-the-run 9-year 2.35% Jul-33 Obli (ISIN: ES00000128Q6) on offer. The auction size will be announced on Monday but we look for around E6.0-6.5bln to be sold.
• France will also come to the market on Thursday to hold a MT OAT auction with E10.5-12.0bln on offer. As expected the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6) which was launched in January will be reopened alongside the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98). In addition, the off-the-run 8-year 0% Nov-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0014002WK3) will be on offer.
• France will conclude issuance for the week by returning to the market for an IL OAT auction E1.75-2.00bln of the following on offer: the 0.10% Mar-28 OATi (ISIN: FR0013238268), the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 3.15% Jul-32 OATei (ISIN: FR0000188799) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).