MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jan 22

• The Netherlands, Germany, Portugal and Italy all look to hold auctions in the week ahead while there is a scheduled EU syndication and we also pencil in a Greek syndication. In general, the syndication schedule should slow down a bit as we approach the ECB meeting.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E25.0bln, around half the E50.0bln seen this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E1.0bln (from Lithuania and Cyprus) and coupon payments of E0.5bln (E0.2bln Austrian).
• This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated positive E23.5bln, up from E7.5bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240122.pdf

Supply Next Week

• The EU has a syndication scheduled for the week ahead (we pencil in Tuesday as the most likely date). We don’t have a strong view on what will be on offer, but given the strong demand at other syndications recently, we would expect to see a relatively large dual-tranche offering.
• The Netherlands will look to kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday with E1.5-2.5bln of the 15-year 0% Jan-38 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000B11) on offer.
• Germany will then look to hold a multi-ISIN green auction, also on Tuesday – with E1bln of the 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE0001030740) and E1bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Green Bund (ISIN: DE0001030757) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341).
• Also on Thursday, Portugal will look to sell a combined E1.5-1.75bln of 5/20-year OTs: the on-the-run 5-year 2.125% Oct-28 OT (ISIN: PTOTEVOE0018), the on-the-run 20-year 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the off-the-run 20-year 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020).
• On Thursday, Italy will come to the market for a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We look for a reopening of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084) for up to E3.0-3.5bln. We don’t have a strong view on the BTPei on offer. Details will be announced on Monday.
• Greece will potentially hold a syndication in the week, with a launch of a new 10-year GGB most likely. Issue sizes over past few years have generally been E3.0-3.5bln, but given the strong demand at other EGB syndications recently, we see a chance that this deal is potentially upsized.