MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Mar 27

• The EU, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Belgium all look to issue next week. We also potentially look for an Austrian syndication. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E28.0bln from scheduled issuance operations next week, up from this week’s E16.8bln.
• The upcoming week sees E26.2bln of redemptions, the majority of which (E25.1bln are a French formerly 5-year OAT) with a E1.0bln of a formerly 3-year Slovenian government bond. Coupon payments total E4.2bln, of which E3.8bln are Finnish.
• With estimated gross nominal issuance of E28.0bln next week, we look for net flows of negative E2.5bln in the week ahead, down from this week’s positive E8.7bln.

For more see the full PDF including a recap of this week's issuance operations:

EZ230327.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will come to the market to hold a syndication next week. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding which bonds will be on offer.
• The Netherlands will kick off auctions for the week on Tuesday with E1.5-2.0bln of the former 30-year benchmark, the 0% Jan-52 DSL (ISIN: NL0015614579).
• Also Tuesday, Italy will hold its first auction of the week. It will look to reopen the E1.00-1.25bln of the 2.50% Dec-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005045270) alongside E2.25-2.75bln of the 3.40% Mar-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005534281) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
• Finally on Tuesday, Germany looks to sell E5.5bln of the 2.50% Mar-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22007).
• On Thursday, Italy will look to hold its final end-of-much auction. We expect the on-the-run 5-year 3.40% Apr-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005521981) to be on offer alongside the on-the-run 10-year 4.40% May-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005518128) and the recently issued 0.80% Oct-28 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005534984). The bonds on offer will be announced on Monday.
• On Friday, Belgium will conclude issuance for the week with an ORI Facility operation (we pencil in a E500mln size across two off-the-run OLOs).
• If market conditions allow, there is the potential for an Austrian syndication either in the upcoming week or the following week.