MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Nov 13

• The EU, Germany, Greece, Spain and France all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E31.5bln, up from E14.5bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E1.6bln – E1.4bln of which are from a formerly 7-year SlovGB.
• Coupon payments for the week total E2.5bln, of which E1.8bln are Italian and E0.5bln German.
• This leaves net flows for the week an estimated positive E27.4bln, up from positive E10.8bln this week.

EZ231113.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will look to hold its last syndication of 2023 in the W/C 13 November. With E26bln out of E40bln of the EU’s H2 target sold so far and only one further auction to follow this syndication, it could potentially be a dual-tranche transaction. We pencil in a E5-9bln total size but don’t have a strong conviction of with bonds will be on offer.
• On Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E5bln of the 3.10% Dec-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22031).
• Note that the Netherlands has announced it will not conduct its optional auction that it had pencilled in for Tuesday, and we have probably already seen the last Dutch auction of 2023. The DSTA did state that it reserved the right to hold another auction this year if necessary, however.
• On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold its last auction of 2023, with details due to be announced on Tuesday (the day before).
• Wednesday will then see Germany hold its last 30-year Bund auction of 2023 with E1bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) on offer alongside E1bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
• On Thursday, Spain will look to hold a Bono/Olbi auction with on-the-run 3/10/20-year issues on offer: the 3-year 2.80% May-26 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012L29), the 10-year 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78) and the 20-year 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold its final MT auction of 2023 with a E9-10bln auction size. Both the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% Sep-26 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FYQ4) and the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98) are on offer alongside the 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5).
• Finally on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold its final IL OAT auction of 2023. On offer will be a combined E1.25-1.75bln of the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).