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MNI BoC Review, Sep'23: Awaiting A Plethora Of Data Before October Meeting

Source: Bank of Canada

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC left the overnight rate unchanged at 5% as almost unanimously expected.
  • The single page statement lent hawkish in that it reverted to explicit willingness to hike further if necessary, as was the case with its conditional pause earlier in the year before hiking in June and July (although some analysts were surprised by this considering it was dropped at those two meetings).
  • It’s Governor Macklem’s turn to deliver the Economic Progress Report later on Thursday, but upcoming data releases should have more impact, starting with Friday’s labour force survey. There are two CPI and two labour reports plus quarterly business and consumer surveys before the Oct 25 decision.
  • Continued data dependency sees the market pricing about 50/50 odds of a hike by year-end.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCReviewSep2023.pdf

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