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May 2022 Pre-FOMC Hawk-Dove Update

FED

Some highlights from our Fed Preview's Inter-Meeting FedSpeak section:

  • Chair Powell clearly telegraphed the FOMC’s likely May decision, pointing to a half-point rate hike and a balance sheet runoff announcement. Those views were corroborated by many key FOMC members (and none directly contradicted the 50bp outlook).
  • While St Louis Fed Pres Bullard remained at the hawkish vanguard of the FOMC by suggesting that a 75bp hike could be possible at the May meeting, he said it wasn’t his base case. No other FOMC members suggested they supported a 75bp increase.
  • A few terms have entered the regular FOMC communication lexicon including references to “expedient” and “front-loaded” rate hikes, alluding to increases larger than 25bp. Several FOMC members expressed that it would be appropriate for rates to rise to neutral by the end of the year.
  • On the hawkish-tilting side of the outlook, Powell among others said raising rates above neutral could be necessary to fight inflation, with the economy well prepared to withstand tighter policy. On the more dovish side, some pointed to uncertainty about the outlook.

Source: MNI

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