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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SWEDEN
Swedish May CPI is due tomorrow at 0700BST. Analysts currently expect CPIF ex-energy at 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior). The Riksbank’s March MPR forecasted a 2.9% Y/Y reading, but this projection is now stale with March and April’s forecast error already -0.4pp.
- Unless the data prints markedly below consensus, we don’t think it will have much of a bearing on the Riksbank’s June decision. Executive Board speakers (and the March MPR rate path) indicates that the bar to a second consecutive cut is very high. As such, we think any market reaction is likely to be relatively short-lived.
- Analysts note that lower electricity prices should drag headline CPIF down towards the Riksbank’s 2% target, with analyst consensus at 2.1% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior, 2.6% Riksbank MPR).
- Services provide a source of uncertainty, particular in leisure-related categories. May saw Sweden host the Eurovision song contest and two Taylor Swift concerts, which may boost restaurant and hotel prices above their seasonal norms.
- See below for a selection of analyst views ahead of the release:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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