MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Allow Powell To Serve Term - Moore

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +17K TO 242K IN DEC 07 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Meaningful CPI miss to the downside

UK DATA
  • So overall the drivers of the surprise:
  • Services: Recreation and culture the biggest downside surprise - with computer games and theatre/concert ticket prices with notable contributions. Some of this might rebound in December. Accomodation prices didn't rebound as much as some expected - this barely got a mention in the CPI press release - but seems as though it could be a more persistent change. Still some scope for a bit more of a rebound in December though. So some of the weakness in services CPI could rebound - but probably not 0.6ppt to get us near to the BOE's Nov MPR forecast.
  • Food prices a bit on the softer side of expectations and transport prices falling more than expected with larger falls in second hand card prices than had been pencilled in. They don't seem to be things that are as likely to be susceptible to a rebound.
  • So this is a meaningful miss to the downside. If we get another similar miss in the December data (which is also before the Feb MPC meeting) we would expect to see a good chance that at least some of the hawks vote for unchanged rates - and the chance of Dhingra voting for a cut in February has risen.
  • We could get another leg lower for the pound when UK STIR markets open at 7:30GMT.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.