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Median Analyst Sees First BoC Cut In April 2024

CANADA
  • Bloomberg has updated its analyst survey ahead of tomorrow’s BoC decision.
  • It shows that whilst the BoC is almost unanimously expected to remain on hold tomorrow, there are still some analysts looking for further hikes including GS and JPM and indicated in the MNI BoC Preview published earlier today (see here)
  • The first median cut is seen coming with the April decision, unchanged from the survey taken Aug 11-16 prior to softer than expected GDP growth although a collection period of Aug 28 - Sep 1 will have made it tight to have captured the softer GDP data on Sep 1.
  • Cuts are seen building to a cumulative 100bp to 4% by Dec’24 before a split between 50-75bps of additional cuts thereafter to June 2025.

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