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Free AccessMedical Care's Disinflationary Impulse Persistent But Fading
Medical care services prices (6.4% of the CPI basket) saw their 8th negative month in 9 (unrounded at zero, -0.02% M/M) in June. Medical care commodities (1.5% of the CPI basket) rose by just 0.2%, the lowest rate since February and down from 0.6% M/M prior.
- Medical services have been slightly overlooked in the past year but is the largest single services category in CPI outside of shelter, outweighing Education, Transportation, Recreation.
- Its most deflationary period appears to be behind, with June marking the 2nd highest reading for medical care services since Sept 2022.
- The insurance subcomponent has been persistently negative since a methodological change last October and that is likely to reverse in the fall when the methodology changes again; meanwhile higher wages are likely to feed into higher prices in the other subcomponents.
- Also of note, Medical goods are more heavily weighted in PCE than in CPI, and some had expected renewed strength in this category to offset weakness elsewhere - that was not the case, which may restrain imputed estimates of PCE.
Source: BLS, MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.