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(M2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play


Remains Above The May 12 Low


(M2) Gains Considered Corrective

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German gov't spokesman Steffen Seibert tweets: "Today, Chancellor Merkel spoke on the phone with President Putin about the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border. She underlined that the utilisation of migrants by the Belarusian regime was inhumane and unacceptable and asked Pres. Putin to influence this."

  • The Russian gov't plays a key role in propping up the Belarusian gov't, and without Moscow's support it is seen as unlikely that the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko could be sustained in the long-term. As such, should Putin push for a resolution, the Belarusian gov't would likely acquiesce.
  • However, almost certainly Putin would seek concessions from EU/EU member states in order to stem the flow of migrants being transported to the Polish-Belarusian border by Belarusian authorities.
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