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Mester: Today’s Data Suggest More Work To Do, Everything On Table For June

FED
  • Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’24 voter) tells CNBC that today’s PCE inflation data underscored slow progress on inflation (Reuters) with it being concerning and that the data generally this morning suggest more work to do (BBG).
  • Specifically on today’s PCE print, core services ex-housing inflation remains stubborn [recall it accelerated from 0.29% to 0.42% M/M for fastest since Jan today.]
  • She notes “everything is on the table” at the June meeting with more data still to assess before then [she doesn’t mention but notably payrolls on Jun 2 and CPI on Jun 13]
  • She repeats May 16 remarks that we’re not at the point yet where the next move could be up or down (which she previously used to describe sufficiently restrictive). Undertightening with high inflation would be detrimental.
  • Less hawkish points: previous rate hikes will affect economy going forward and the economy has slowed quite a bit from last year.
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