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MEXICO: USDMXN Slides into Negative Territory, CPI & GDP Data Friday

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionNorth America
  • Some renewed optimism for the Mexican peso is permeating Monday, with USDMXN now roughly 2% off last Thursday’s highs and back below 20.30. A relatively dovish Banxico and details from the 2025 budget/Pemex plan have had little short-term impact on USDMXN and the inability to recapture the post-election highs continues to highlight a potential short-term top for the pair.
  • More stable equity markets and the most recent rejection of 4.5% for the US 10-yr yield are moderately weighing on the dollar, assisting the peso’s outperformance on Monday.
  • USDMXN recently traded through the 20-day EMA, and would now expose support at the 50-day EMA, around 19.80. A clear breach of this average would then signal the potential for a deeper retracement towards 19.0666, the Sep 18 low. On the topside, resistance remains at 20.8072, the Nov 6 high.
  • Despite a quiet start to the week, domestic data picks up on Thursday, where September retail sales are due. Friday will bring the final reading of Q3 GDP and September economic activity, alongside the mid-November readings for headline and core inflation.
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  • Some renewed optimism for the Mexican peso is permeating Monday, with USDMXN now roughly 2% off last Thursday’s highs and back below 20.30. A relatively dovish Banxico and details from the 2025 budget/Pemex plan have had little short-term impact on USDMXN and the inability to recapture the post-election highs continues to highlight a potential short-term top for the pair.
  • More stable equity markets and the most recent rejection of 4.5% for the US 10-yr yield are moderately weighing on the dollar, assisting the peso’s outperformance on Monday.
  • USDMXN recently traded through the 20-day EMA, and would now expose support at the 50-day EMA, around 19.80. A clear breach of this average would then signal the potential for a deeper retracement towards 19.0666, the Sep 18 low. On the topside, resistance remains at 20.8072, the Nov 6 high.
  • Despite a quiet start to the week, domestic data picks up on Thursday, where September retail sales are due. Friday will bring the final reading of Q3 GDP and September economic activity, alongside the mid-November readings for headline and core inflation.