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FOMC: Micael Gapen and Pooja Sriram at Barclays write of the March FOMC "Gradual
normalization strikes a 'middle ground'".
- Barclays note that the average funds rate rose by 20-30bp across the
projection horizon. Plus, the Summary of Economic Projections included "Faster
growth, lower unemployment, but only a modest pickup in inflation".
- Gapen and Sriram highlight that Powell said that the link between resource
utilization is not strong and members see the Phillips curve as flat.
- Most of the revisions to dots and forecasts were in line with what Barclays
had expected but they were surprised that the median long-run policy rate was
also revised higher to 2.9%, from 2.8%.
- Other parts of the Powell press conference highlighted by Barclays were that
the balance sheet is on auto-pilot and interest rate policy will be the primary
tool to respond to changes in the outlook. Powell also mentioned that no
decision about the long-run operation framework should be expected in the near
term: RRP and IOER will remain for some time.