Free Trial

Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Eases Back

NATURAL GAS

Front month TTF is easing back today and fell shortly to the lowest level since 10 October, amid healthy supplies and bearish short-term fundamentals as well as weighed on by easing supply risks from the Middle East following the restart of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -3.5% at 45€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -3.6% at 46.71€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.6% at 45.45€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -2.1% at 49.12€/MWh
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were at 249k on Friday.
  • Israel’s pipeline natural gas flows to Egypt are currently at around 350-400mcf/d, still around 50% lower than prior to the conflict, a person familiar with the numbers told Bloomberg. Israel ordered Chevron to resume production at the 10bcm/yr Tamar natural gas field that was forced to halt production on 9 October according to a filing on Sunday by Isramco, stakeholder in the field.
  • Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is today at 327.1mcm/d but is expected to increase tomorrow with the return of capacity at Oseberg following an outage.
  • Russian natural gas flows via Bulgaria continue today despite the new tax on transit flows according to Montel.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to remain generally above normal in the coming week but could fall back closer to normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • European natural gas storage was down to 99.45% full on Nov 11 according to GIE data amid smaller than normal withdrawals over the weekend. The five year average storage levels is around 89.6% at the time of year.
  • European LNG sendout was up to 446mcm/d on 11 Nov having increased from around 380mcm/d at the start of the month. Floating LNG storage at sea for at least 20 days has edged higher again to hold above the previous five year range.
  • Spain may need to block LNG arrivals as the country’s regasification tanks are nearly at 100% full, TSO Enagas said Friday.
  • Spain’s Sagunto LNG terminal has reloaded two cargoes in recent days according to ICIS, indicating Europe is still comfortably supplies at the start of the winter heating season.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
    • JKM DEC 23 down -1.5% at 16.41$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.3$/mmbtu at 2.34$/mmbtu

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.