Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Edges Higher

Front month TTF is edging higher but remains below yesterday’s highs supported by forecasts for below-normal temperatures from the end of the second week in February.

• TTF FEB 24 up 1% at 28.45€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1% at 29.39€/MWh
• Markets are waiting for the US response following the attack on its troops stationed in Jordan over the weekend while negotiators are working on a “three-phase” ceasefire between Israel and Hamas including the release of hostages.
• NW and central Europe are expected to see above normal temperatures in the coming week before easing back to below normal from 11 February.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly lower on the day at 345.9mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage was 71.54% full on Jan 28 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 58.7%.
• European natural gas inventories in NW Europe, Italy and Austria are forecast to end the heating season at 51% of capacity by the end of March according to BNEF.
• European LNG sendout was down to the lowest since mid October at 301mcm/d on Jan 28 compared to an average of around 381mcm/d so far in Jan.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that has not unloaded for at least 20 days fell by 14% over the last week to 2.91mn tons as of 28 January, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 2% to 8.7mn tons during 22-28 January, as lower volumes to NW Europe and Italy were offset by slightly higher shipments to China, southern Europe, South Asia and the Americas according to BNEF.
• Gas supply to Europe during winter 2023-2024 is forecast to decline by 3% on the year to 842mcm/d due to sluggish demand according to BNEF.
• North African LNG exports – from Algeria and Egypt – stood at 1.18mn tons on 1-30 January, down from 1.34mn tons in December, S&P Commodity Insights data showed, suggesting Red Sea shipping disruptions are hindering exports out of the region.
• Gas consumption in Baltic countries fell 6% last year due to warm weather, high gas prices at the start of the year and reduced gas consumption in the fertiliser industry according to Lithuanian TSO Amber Grid via Montel.
• Workers at France’s EdF have started a 24-hour industrial action on Monday 21:00 CET, but so far strikes have failed to significantly weigh on the country’s production capacity, EdF remit data showed.