Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Erases Most of Yesterday’s Gains

Front month TTF has pulled back from yesterday’s high of 37.59€/MWh driven by rising risks to shipping. Most of the gains been erased today, weighed on by bearish short-term fundamentals amid lower demand due to mild weather and steady supplies.

• TTF JAN 24 down -7.6% at 32.83€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -7.2% at 33.13€/MWh
• Companies such as BP and Equinor diverting their cargoes has sparked fears for supply passing through the key chokepoint. Three LNG carriers have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab strait amid Houthi attacks on vessels in the region, according to Argus yesterday.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to continue until the end of December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 88.36% full on Dec 17 according to GIE data amid smaller than normal withdrawal rates and compared to the seasonal five year average of 77.3%.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are up near the yearly high at 358.5mcm/d today.
• Norway’s Equinor has signed an agreement to supply 111TWh, 10bcm per year, of natural gas to Germany’s SEFE starting 1 January for the duration of ten years, the Norwegian firm said.
• European LNG sendout was unchanged at 407mcm/d on Dec 17 but remains below levels around 480mcm/d this time last year.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days rose by 3.4% last week to 3.59mn tons as of 17 December according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The Alexandroupolis FSRU has arrived in Greece and is expected to start receiving cargoes early next year according to ICIS.
• QatarEnergy expects several new long-term LNG supply deals in Asia and Europe are "imminent" and will “definitely announce something next year” according to Reuters.