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NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls

NATGAS
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TTF front month is extending declines under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and as countries push for the EU to relax gas storage targets.

  • TTF MAR 25 down 6.6% at 51.97€/MWh
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.
  • At the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group in Brussels on Thursday, a number of countries will push for an easing of targets designed to ensure inventories are 90% full by Nov. 1, according to Bloomberg.
  • Cold temperatures are forecast for NW and central Europe until mid next week before turning milder.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 318.6mcm/d today due to unplanned “process problems” reducing capacity at Troll and Kristin, Gassco shows.
  • LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 rose to approximately 11mtpa, compared to an average of about 9.6mtpa over 2022-2024, according to Timera Energy.
  • European gas storage withdrawals are above normal again as stores fall to 47.24% full on Feb. 11, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.7%.
  • European LNG sendout remains relatively unchanged at 459mcm/d on Feb. 11 compared to an average of 440mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Ukraine is set to increase its gas imports by a further 10% on Thursday to around 25 million cubic meters according to transmission data.
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TTF front month is extending declines under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and as countries push for the EU to relax gas storage targets.

  • TTF MAR 25 down 6.6% at 51.97€/MWh
  • President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
  • Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.
  • At the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group in Brussels on Thursday, a number of countries will push for an easing of targets designed to ensure inventories are 90% full by Nov. 1, according to Bloomberg.
  • Cold temperatures are forecast for NW and central Europe until mid next week before turning milder.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 318.6mcm/d today due to unplanned “process problems” reducing capacity at Troll and Kristin, Gassco shows.
  • LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 rose to approximately 11mtpa, compared to an average of about 9.6mtpa over 2022-2024, according to Timera Energy.
  • European gas storage withdrawals are above normal again as stores fall to 47.24% full on Feb. 11, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.7%.
  • European LNG sendout remains relatively unchanged at 459mcm/d on Feb. 11 compared to an average of 440mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Ukraine is set to increase its gas imports by a further 10% on Thursday to around 25 million cubic meters according to transmission data.