Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Lacks Direction

European gas prices see another volatile trading session and are currently trading lower on the day with above-average weather and high storage levels weighed against supply uncertainty driven by possible escalation in the Israel conflict.

• TTF NOV 23 down -1.3% at 50.6€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.5% at 56.25€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday dipped back below average at 204k.
• The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe until the end of the month although could drift back towards normal in the first week of November.
• European natural gas consumption in September stood 20% below the 2017-21 average, with the Netherlands, Germany and France recording reduction of at least 25% according to Eurostat data, cited by Argus Media.
• Industrial gas consumption in Spain during the third quarter rose 25.4% above 2022 levels, supported by demand from the refining, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, Enagas said.
• Not temperature adjusted natural gas consumption in the European Union and the UK in the first 23 days of October fell 25% below the 2017-2021 average according to ICIS.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 311.5mcm/d.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.59% full on 22 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.9%.
• Construction of the Soyuz-Vostok pipeline - the Mongolian portion of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline - could begin in Q1 2024, Russian Deputy PM Victoria Abramchenko told TASS.
• Starting in 2025, supply for LNG is set to increase as a wave of new projects come online, adding 250 bcm/y by 2030, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023.
• Total European LNG sendout is holding steady around 306mcm/d on 22 Oct compared to an average of 310mcm/d so far this month and 369mcm/d in Oct 2022.
• Global weekly LNG imports last week stood at 7.2mn tons for 16-22 October, down by 6% week on week, driven by a decline in volumes to China according to BNEF.
• Imports of LNG into China in September fell to 5.69m mt, down 9.7% on the month, according to OilChem citing General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) data.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased 5.8% over the last week to 4.74mn tons as of 22 October, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM Nov 23 down -1.4% at 18.37$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 2.46$/mmbtu