Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF on Track For Weekly Increase

TTF front month is trading lower after a pullback late yesterday amid the expiry of the Nov contract, while heading for a weekly increase. Extended Norwegian outages yesterday are supportive but low demand from the lack of cold weather in the forecast and high storage levels are limiting upside moves.

• TTF NOV 23 down -1.5% at 42.43€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 255.8mcm/d as field and plant maintenance gradually comes to an end. New works however continue to extend the seasonal capacity reductions with outages expected to remain over 50mcm/d in the coming week.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.15% full on 27 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 86.96%.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks with little sign of any cold until mid October.
• Gazprom’s Russian units produced 179.45bcm of natural gas in the first half of this year, down nearly 25% compared to the first half of 2022 according to company disclosure documents.
• LNG sendout to Europe is up to 302mcm/d on 27 Sep from as low as 236mcm/d on 23 Sep but still well below levels around 370mcm/d seen this time last year.
• Europe's LNG imports dropped by 20% yoy in Sep23, leading to their steepest drop since Russia's invasion of Ukraine according to IEA.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024, unchanged on the day according to BNEF.
  • JKM Oct 23 down -0.9% at 13.98$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Oct 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at 1.6$/mmbtu
• Asian LNG buyers are now favoring oil indexation in their long-term contracting needs to move away from additional US LNG commitments according to Energy Intelligence.
• Japan's LNG stocks are expected to rise between October and November amid stock replenishments and falling weather temperatures, according to Platts.