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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF On Track For Weekly Net Decline

NATURAL GAS

TTF is trending lower today with strong supplies, high storage levels and the return to above normal temperatures next week outweighing LNG supply risks and this weekend’s cold spell. TTF is on track for a week-on-week net decline.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -3% at 46.67€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.7% at 48.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.6% at 46.9€/MWh
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up slightly to 269k.
  • EU lawmakers have once again called for the bloc to outlaw imports of Russian LNG and to close loopholes in existing sanctions although there are no signs of an EU wide agreement soon. Disruption to LNG supply remains an upside price risk with current Qatar LNG maintenance and the cancellation of a cargo from Gorgon LNG in Australia.
  • Bulgaria’s tax on Russian gas transit shipments is due to start on Monday increasing the risk to export flows via the route according to a Montel source.
  • The Hong-Kong registered NewNew Polar Bear vessel remains the main focus of the investigation into the damage of the two subsea telecom cables in October, Estonian State Prosecutor Triinu Olev said on Friday.
  • The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows above normal temperatures next week after a brief cold spell this weekend. The forecast for the second week of the outlook is showing temperatures closer to normal.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are still near strong up at 343.2mcm/d today but will fall over the week with an Oseberg outage now expected on 11-14 Nov.
  • European natural gas storage levels edged slightly lower on 8 Nov to 99.57% full according to GIE data after the first net withdrawal of the winter on 7 Nov. The five year average storage levels is around 89.9% at this time of year.
  • European LNG sendout was at 436mcm/d on 8 Nov compared to an average of 388mcm/d in the first week on the month. Floating LNG storage remains high despite a slight dip in the last 10 days with around 25% of all volumes located around Europe.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
    • JKM DEC 23 down -4.4% at 16.69$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF DEC 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 2.17$/mmbtu
  • China, the largest importer of LNG, is progressively boosting its resales of cargoes to other buyers in APAC to profit from price volatility, according to Reuters.

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