Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Removes Some Earlier Gains

TTF surges higher again but removed some earlier gains with the front month rising to €42.90/MWh as strikes at Australia LNG facilities become more likely and risk tightening global LNG supplies.

• TTF SEP 23 up 6.3% at 38.71€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2.1% at 54.08€/MWh
• Australian Industrial Action: Workers at Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf LNG export plant have endorsed to take industrial action if a dispute over an enterprise bargaining agreement is not resolved by Wednesday, meaning workers could start industrial action as early as 2 September. At Chevron, workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone downstream facilities began voting on possible industrial action on Friday. Employees at the Wheatstone offshore platform are scheduled to start voting today.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down to 301mcm/d due to seasonal field and processing plant maintenance and expected to fall further with more outages planned to start this week.
• Steady injection rates have brought total gas storage is up to 91.05% full on a 19 Aug according to GIE data. The five year average for storage at this time of year is 77.6%.
• Temperature forecasts in NW and central Europe are holding above normal this week but drift back towards normal into the last few days of the month and into the start of August.
• Europe has only a 10% of gas shortages this winter as it is well prepared should Russian supplies fall to almost zero, Eurasia Group said in a note.
• Hydropower stock levels in seven European leading hydropower producing countries – Norway, Sweden, France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland and Spain – have risen overall above the five-year averages.
• LNG sendout to Europe was holding around 300mcm/d at the end of last week with supplies to NW Europe still below levels seen this time last wear.
• US LNG exports remain more profitable to Asia in October, while Europe has become the premium market for November and December. The US LNG netback to Asia in October is $11.24/MMBtu, a 20 cents/MMBtu premium over Europe. In November, shipping a cargo to Europe earns a netback of $13.36/MMBtu, compared to $13.19/MMBtu for Asia.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -0.2$/mmbtu at 2.12$/mmbtu
• LNG imports to Asia are expected up to the most since January at 22.86m metric tons for August according to Kpler data.