Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Ticks Up

TTF front month has crept up after starting the day trading lower. Cuts to Norwegian pipeline supplies and continued concerns for LNG supply disruptions East of Suez are outweighing downside pressure from a slightly warmer weather forecast.

• TTF MAR 24 up 0.4% at 28.72€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.2% at 29.1€/MWh
• Reuters claims to have seen a draft of the counterproposal from Hamas regarding a ceasefire.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 326.7mcm/d but still below flows seen last week due to the ongoing unplanned outages at Troll and Nyhamna.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to remain above normal this week.
• Net withdrawal rates remain below normal since Jan 19 with European natural gas storage at 68.61% full on Feb 5 according to GIE data.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 238k yesterday.
• Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have tightened the JKM-TTF spread as more Middle Eastern LNG flows head towards Asia away from Europe to stay clear of the Suez Canal according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
• Global LNG imports are forecast to drop by 13% month on month in February, due to lower heating demand amid milder weather and lower industrial activity in China due to the Lunar New Year Holiday according to BNEF.
• Qatar’s LNG vessel Al Nuaman has almost arrived at its destination in Italy after taking the long way around the Cape of Good Hope due to Houthi attack dangers according to ICIS.
• Centrica has signed a deal with Repsol to purchase 1mn tons of LNG shipments between 2025 and 2027, Centrica said.