Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Up But On Track For Weekly Decline

TTF markets edge higher with supply risks set against relatively unchanged near term market fundamentals with high storage levels and still little sign of below normal temperatures for most of Europe. Front month TTF is currently trading below last Friday’s close of €54.982/MWh.

• TTF NOV 23 up 2.7% at 51.54€/MWh
• NBP NOV 23 up 4.5% at 129.25p/th
• The Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread is holding relatively steady this week at 5.8€/MWh today and with Q1 2025- Q1 2024 at 1.3€/MWh.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes are still strong at 300k contracts yesterday.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe in the coming week are expected to gradually drift back towards normal in the second week of the forecast and into the start of November. Nordic region will however remain colder than normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back up to 313.3mcm/d. Oseberg posted a new gas unavailability 25.5mcm/d on 20-22 October and for 20.5mcm/d from 22-23 October.
• European natural gas storage edged just slightly higher yesterday up to 98.14% full on 18 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.6%.
• Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower on the day at 306mcm/d on 18 Oct according to Bloomberg and roughly in line with the average seen so far this month.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM Nov 23 down -1.3% at 18.43$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.7$/mmbtu at 2.21$/mmbtu
• Shell has accelerated spot LNG purchases for this winter, as the firm bought four LNG shipments for December delivery to North Asia on Wednesday and Thursday according to S&P’s MOC.
• Egypt so far this month exported just two LNG cargoes, ship-tracking data showed, supporting concerns that the restart of Egyptian LNG flows might be hampered by lower gas pipeline supplies from Israel due to due closure of the 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field and the EMG gas pipeline.
• The agreement between China’s CNPC and Gazprom for additional gas pipeline imports for the remainder of this year through the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline could free some global LNG cargoes for the remainder of this year according to BNEF.
• The start of exports from Indonesia’s Tangguh train 3 LNG project will mean global winter supply of LNG could increased by 12% compared to 2022, according to BNEF.