Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Finds No Clear Direction

Brent crude is struggling to find a clear direction today, despite a more positive oil demand outlook from the IEA. Crude rallied yesterday driven by a higher oil demand growth forecast from the OPEC MOMR. Today’s US CPI release will also be in focus with concern for demand growth in US as well as China and Europe. A stronger print would be negative for crude as it may signal further Fed tightening.

• Brent JAN 24 down -0.2% at 82.33$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 down -0.2% at 78.12$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 down -0.4% at 810.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.29$/bbl
• Global oil demand growth for this year has been revised up again by 100kbpd to 2.4mbpd to reach 102mbpd, with Chinese demand accounting for 1.8mbpd of all growth, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow which will include two week’s worth of data after the delayed release last week.
• The US CPI data due at 08:30 ET.
• WTI Crude managed money net long positions followed the decline in Brent seen in data on Friday according to the delayed COT data released yesterday. The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI fell by -45k to the lowest since early July at 271k.
• The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has told reporters, after a meeting of EU foreign ministers today, that EU officials are "finalising" the "last details" of the 12th package of sanctions on Russia, expected to include a ban on Russian diamonds and measures to tighten enforcement of the price cap on Russian oil.
• The G7 price cap on Russian crude oil exports is being almost completely circumvented, a senior EU government official said.
• The US energy department plans to buy 1.2mbbls of oil at 77.57$/bbl to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government are still in talks to resume oil flows on the Iraq-Turkey pipeline according to Iraqi oil minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said in an interview to Rudaw channel. Kurdistan oil producer Genel cautions against optimism around the Iraq-Turkey pipeline re-opening with talks reportedly advancing again this week.
• Oil production from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield will remain stable in 2024 versus 2023 levels according to Kazakhstan’s energy ministry.
• Libya’s planned exports in November are 1.05m b/d, totalling 31.4m bbl, according to Bloomberg citing the loading programme.
• ExxonMobil’s 619,024 bpd Beaumont refinery, Texas has returned to normal operations Monday following a power issue on Friday according to Reuters reports
• China's small independent refineries expect the government to raise the fuel oil import quota for 2023 by 3mn tons for non-state-owned companies to allow them to bring in more barrels as an alternative feedstock for the remainder of the year, sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• Global passenger jet fuel demand is set to gall by 1.4% in the week to Nov. 20 to 6m b/d, according to BNEF.
• Diesel cracks are seeing renewed downward pressure today after the rally yesterday amid ongoing concern for global oil demand. The cracks were supported yesterday by an upward revision to the OPEC oil demand growth forecast.
• Gasoil backwardation has also softened so far in November with the supplies likely to be boosted by the return of refineries from maintenance.
• “With only diesel holding the refinery margin in Europe, refinery run cuts might become a discussion point for the first time since the Russian invasion,” according to a report by Oilytics.
  • Gasoil DEC 23 down -0.4% at 810.25$/mt
  • ULSD DEC 23 down -0.7% at 2.82$/gal
  • Gasoil DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.25$/mt at 12.5$/mt
  • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -2.25$/mt at 58.25$/mt
  • EU Gasoil-Brent down -0.5$/bbl at 24.75$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.5$/bbl at 40.34$/bbl