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Midmorning Update

US TSY FUTURES
  • Tsy futures extended this morning's post-CPI highs, are holding just off the top end of the wide range.
  • Dec'23 10Y futures briefly topped initial resistance (108-25, High Nov 3 and the next bull trigger) to 108-28.5 high, the contract currently trading 108-23 (+1-09), yield currently 4.4551% (-.1848) vs. 4.4298% low.
  • Heavy overall volumes (TYZ3>1.7M) as markets react to this morning disinflationary CPI inflation measures for October: CPI MoM (0.0% vs. 0.1% est, 0.4% prior), YoY (3.2% vs. 3.3% est, 3.7% prior); CPI Ex Food/Energy MoM (0.2% vs. 0.3% est, 0.3% prior), YoY (4.0% vs. 4.1% est).
  • Post-CPI: early 2024 projected rate cut chances holding near this morning's highs: December at 0bp at 5.338%, January 2024 cumulative 1.2bp (7.1bp pre-CPI) at 5.333%, March 2024 pricing in -28.1% chance of a rate cut (-16% pre-CPI) with cumulative at -5.8bp at 5.262%, May 2024 pricing in -49.5% chance of a rate cut with cumulative -18.2bp at 5.139%.
  • Fed terminal, meanwhile, has fallen to 5.3330% in Jan'24-Feb'24 vs. 5.405% pre-CPI
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