Free Trial
GOLD

Edges Down From Multi Week Highs

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MIDTERMS: Betting Markets Swing Behind Split Congress

US

The Democrats retaining Senate seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington as well as strong early results in Pennsylvania and Arizona have seen a major swing in political betting markets towards the prospect of a split Congress, with the most likely scenario now seen as the Democrats retaining the Senate while the Republicans win the House.

  • Shortly before the first polls closed in the states of Kentucky and Indiana, data from Smarkets showed the implied probability of the Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate at a high of 82.0%. This scenario has now fallen to 16.1%.
  • The scenario of a split Congress if assigned a 66.7% implied probability, with the tail risk scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress assigned a 10.9% implied probability.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Congressional Control, %

Keep reading...Show less
155 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

The Democrats retaining Senate seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington as well as strong early results in Pennsylvania and Arizona have seen a major swing in political betting markets towards the prospect of a split Congress, with the most likely scenario now seen as the Democrats retaining the Senate while the Republicans win the House.

  • Shortly before the first polls closed in the states of Kentucky and Indiana, data from Smarkets showed the implied probability of the Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate at a high of 82.0%. This scenario has now fallen to 16.1%.
  • The scenario of a split Congress if assigned a 66.7% implied probability, with the tail risk scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress assigned a 10.9% implied probability.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Congressional Control, %

Keep reading...Show less