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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The Democrats retaining Senate seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington as well as strong early results in Pennsylvania and Arizona have seen a major swing in political betting markets towards the prospect of a split Congress, with the most likely scenario now seen as the Democrats retaining the Senate while the Republicans win the House.
- Shortly before the first polls closed in the states of Kentucky and Indiana, data from Smarkets showed the implied probability of the Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate at a high of 82.0%. This scenario has now fallen to 16.1%.
- The scenario of a split Congress if assigned a 66.7% implied probability, with the tail risk scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers of Congress assigned a 10.9% implied probability.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Congressional Control, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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