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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Betting exchanges now see Republican control of both sides of Congress as the most probably outcome of the midterm elections.
- According to Smarkets, the GOP has a 60.61% implied probability of winning both the Senate and the House of Representatives on November 8.
- The next most probably outcome is Republican House/Democrat Senate with an implied probability of 27.78%.
- The Smarkets data shows a dramatic shift of the political environment towards the GOP. As recently as this month the most likely outcome was a split Congress, with Democrats retaining control of the Senate.
- The FiveThirtyEight "Delux" election model shows a similar shift, with Senate control now considered by 538 editor Nate Silver to be a "tossup" having been downgraded from "lean Democrat."
Chart 1: Chances of Controlling the Senate, % Over Time (FiveThirtyEight)
Chart 2: 2022 House and Senate Control (Smarkets)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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