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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Latest data from Smarkets shows re-elected Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis overtaking former President Donald Trump in the political betting market for who will be elected president in 2024.
- A major shift in betting sentiment sees DeSantis assigned a 25.0% implied probability of winning in 2024, compared to 24.4% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden has a 11.9% implied probability of winning a second term in office, with VP Kamala Harris on 5.6% and re-elected Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom on 5.7%.
- The midterm elections so far are looking disappointing for the Republicans, with a 'red wave' failing to materialise. In particular, Trump-backed candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona look to have underperformed.
- This stands in stark contrast to DeSantis, who won an overwhelming victory in the Florida governor's race (59.4% to 39.9%) and is seen to have spurred victory for a number of GOP candidates in House races in the state. DeSantis' popularity seen as being key to turning Florida from historically a swing state to more solidly in the Republican category.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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