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MIDTERMS: DeSantis Overtakes Trump In 2024 Presidential Betting Stakes

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Latest data from Smarkets shows re-elected Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis overtaking former President Donald Trump in the political betting market for who will be elected president in 2024.

  • A major shift in betting sentiment sees DeSantis assigned a 25.0% implied probability of winning in 2024, compared to 24.4% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden has a 11.9% implied probability of winning a second term in office, with VP Kamala Harris on 5.6% and re-elected Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom on 5.7%.
  • The midterm elections so far are looking disappointing for the Republicans, with a 'red wave' failing to materialise. In particular, Trump-backed candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona look to have underperformed.
  • This stands in stark contrast to DeSantis, who won an overwhelming victory in the Florida governor's race (59.4% to 39.9%) and is seen to have spurred victory for a number of GOP candidates in House races in the state. DeSantis' popularity seen as being key to turning Florida from historically a swing state to more solidly in the Republican category.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %

Source: Smarkets

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Latest data from Smarkets shows re-elected Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis overtaking former President Donald Trump in the political betting market for who will be elected president in 2024.

  • A major shift in betting sentiment sees DeSantis assigned a 25.0% implied probability of winning in 2024, compared to 24.4% for Trump. Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden has a 11.9% implied probability of winning a second term in office, with VP Kamala Harris on 5.6% and re-elected Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom on 5.7%.
  • The midterm elections so far are looking disappointing for the Republicans, with a 'red wave' failing to materialise. In particular, Trump-backed candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona look to have underperformed.
  • This stands in stark contrast to DeSantis, who won an overwhelming victory in the Florida governor's race (59.4% to 39.9%) and is seen to have spurred victory for a number of GOP candidates in House races in the state. DeSantis' popularity seen as being key to turning Florida from historically a swing state to more solidly in the Republican category.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %

Source: Smarkets