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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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With less 24 hours until Election Day, the GOP holds their widest lead on the generic congressional ballot since mid-July.
- The generic ballot is considered one of the most valuable polling metrics to consider during midterm cycles but the certain quirks of Congressional mapping and the imperfect matching between generic ballot and the popular vote means that the metric tends to underrepresent Republicans.
- Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains when the seemingly tight generic ballot doesn't adequately explain the Republican advantage.
- Silver: "Democrats would have to beat our forecast of the national environment by 3 or perhaps 3.5 percentage points to be favored to win the House. That’s hardly impossible — we’re talking about a normal-sized polling error — but it’s a little tougher than our generic ballot average implies."
Chart 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (FiveThirtyEight)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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