MIDTERMS: Key Analysts Upgrade Republican Chances Of Winning The House

Two key election analysts have upgraded their outlook for the Republican party in the House of Representatives.

• The Cook Political Report has moved its projection from a Republican gain of 10-12 seat to a Republican gain of 12-25 seats.
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball now conservatively projects a net gain of 16 seat for the GOP: “4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week. After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16.”
• Dave Wasserman of the CPR notes the House political landscape is currently "highly bifurcated" which may produce surprise results.
  • “Many Democrats are running ahead of Biden's approval rating in red and purple states, but face unexpected headaches in blue states like New York, Connecticut and Oregon.”
• The Hill speculates that the inverted political environment could be because “the [Democrat] party's abortion messaging is much more potent in states where GOP control could actually make a difference, as opposed to in blue states where abortion rights are more secure.”