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MIDTERMS: Senator Warnock Favoured To Win Georgia Runoff

US

Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is slightly favoured by betting markets to secure a 51st Senate seat for Democrats in the Georgia Senate runoff against Republican Herschel Walker on December 6.

  • Despite a tight first round which Warnock edged by less than 1%, the Democrat incumbent is favoured due to Walker's extreme positions on social issues - cited on exit polls as a key problem for voters -, an expected drop in enthusiasm amongst Republican voters now that the balance of power in the Senate has been determined, the absence of Georgia governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) from the ballot, and a strong run of success for Democrats in recent Georgia runoffs.
  • In Walker's favour is the 2% vote share of Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver who has dropped out of the race and supported Walker.
  • If Democrats can secure 51 Senate seats they will find the pathway to confirming federal nominees of President Biden far simpler. This may play an important role in judicial appointment and the potential confirmation of new Biden cabinet members.
Chart 1: Georgia Senate Runoff Implied Probability, % (Smarkets)

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