Mild European Weather Through February Weighs on TTF

TTF front month falls again towards a low of 24€/MWh see in mid July as mild weather extends to the end of the month to limit heating demand while gas in store holds are five year range highs.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1% at 24.58€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.9% at 25.26€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -0.6% at 29.33€/MWh
• The European weather forecast suggests a further extension of the mild weather with above normal now expected until the end of the month and with little sign of cold in the coming two week outlook.
• Net European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal as overall storage holds up at the previous five year range highs at 65.43% full on Feb 17 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 49.2%.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 339.8mcm/d with flows limited by a planned capacity reduction at Karsto.
• European LNG sendout was at 308mcm/d on Feb 17 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 333mcm/d seen over the previous week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 40.6mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 47.2m/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 252k on Friday.