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Mild Recovery Continues Ahead FOMC

US TSYS
Focus back on FOMC mon-pol annc today (1400ET) as rate futures trading modestly weaker, equities firmer (ESXZ1 +24.0 at 4367.25).
  • FOMC will set up a taper start in late 2021, likely Nov. Details of FOMC's taper plan may not emerge from this meeting, a taper is likely to include $15B/meeting pace and optionality to adjust at each meeting, opening up the possibility of an end-2022 rate hike. Consensus expects the median Fed funds rate 'dot plot' path to remain fairly static at this meeting vs the June projections, setting up hawkish risks.
  • Otherwise, markets continue modest recovery from Monday's sharp risk-off move. Contagion angst over China's Evergrande default risk continues to cool after headlines the real estate developer makes interest payments directly to noteholders overnight (and uncorroborated rumors of a restructuring made the rounds).
  • Decent volumes (TYZ1 >278k), yield curves nominally steeper with 30Y Bonds trading near early overnight lows (30YY 1.8705%).
  • Limited data today, $26B 2Y FRN bill auction and $30B 119D bill CMB auctions both at 1130ET. No NY Fed buy-back due to FOMC.
  • Currently the 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.218%, 5-Yr is up 1.5bps at 0.8439%, 10-Yr is up 1.5bps at 1.3379%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 1.8705%.
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