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Minimal Pullback Of Post-BoC Rally For GoCs

CANADA
  • GoCs continue a belly-led cheapening (5YY +7bps), outperforming Tsys (5YY +12bp) but with outperformance most pronounced at the front end (+5bp vs +13bp).
  • Outperformance comes despite a small beat for monthly Canadian GDP, although that only kept it in line with latest BoC forecasts used to justify a downshift to a 50bp hike this week.
  • The net result is 2Y yields 20bps lower than pre-BoC decision (Can-US yield differential near post-pandemic lows of -56bps) and 10Y yields 18bps lower in a near parallel shift lower in the curve (2s10s -60bps).
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